Global Coal Market 2025: Price Projections and Regional Demand Shifts

1. Demand Dynamics: A Tale of Two Worlds

• Emerging Markets Lead Growth:
  • India’s demand surged by 6% (70 million tons), fueled by economic expansion and electricity shortages.
  • China’s consumption grew 1.1%, remaining the world’s largest consumer at 4.76 billion tons.
• Developed Economies Retreat:
  • EU consumption dropped 12% as renewable energy adoption accelerates.
  • U.S. demand fell 5% due to stricter regulations and wind/solar integration.

2. Production Landscape: Asia’s Dominance Persists

• Indonesia: 840 million tons (up 7.8%), the world’s top thermal coal exporter.
• India: 1.08 billion tons (up 7.2%), driven by energy security policies.
• China: 4.76 billion tons (up 1.3%), balancing production with environmental goals.
• U.S. and Russia: Output declined by 11.9% and 1.4% respectively, hit by regulations and sanctions.

3. Trade Flows: Geopolitics Reshape Supply Chains

• Top Importers:
  • China: 540 million tons (up 14.4%)
  • India: 237 million tons (up 1.8%)
• Top Exporters:
  • Indonesia: 560 million tons
  • Australia: 354 million tons
• Geopolitical Impacts:
  • EU sanctions on Russian coal shifted imports to Australia and South Africa.
  • Export restrictions in Indonesia and India disrupted traditional trade routes.

4. Price Volatility: 2025 Forecasts and Risks

Historical and Projected Prices

Critical Risks

• Upside Risks: China’s power demand surge, hydropower shortages.
• Downside Risks: New mine oversupply, faster energy transition.

5. Conclusion: A Diverging Market in 2025

• Short-Term Outlook: Emerging markets (India, China, SE Asia) will sustain demand growth.
• Long-Term Challenge: Clean energy transitions pose existential risks to coal.
• Price Dynamics: Thermal coal prices may decline, while coking coal rises amid supply constraints.